ALTERATION INFLUENCE OF INTERNATIONAL CONJUNCTURE TO SITUATION IN THE CAUCASIAN REGION

Abstract

The notion "political risk" in foreign political analytics was introduced in the quality of country risk component with the aim to explain a row of failure reasons of this or that country, not connecting directly with financial and economic factors. In the last decade, research of political risks is especially actual. However, because of corresponding researches interdisciplinary character, there is no proper attention to political risk in academic political science, that is why "political risk" is frequently determined as "political instability". Political leaders on data aggregation exist with a goal to form indexes (as a rule, quantitative) of political risks. Particularly, "Marsh", who in its turn rests on research data of the company "BMI Research" – the leading expert in the sphere of political analysis and credit risks. Political risks interactive map was prepared in the result of team-work in 2016. According to this research, terrorism and political violence, armed conflicts, powerful political actions, oriented to destruction of existing political systems, and also permanently low prices on commodities are considered to be the most significant political risks. "Marsh" experts from all the governments of Black sea region especially emphasize Ukraine, Moldavia and Armenia as countries with the highest index of political risk – 43,10 (in the short-run), and 39,60 (in in the longer term), 51,30 (in the short-run) and 51,10 (in in the longer term), 54,40 (in the short-run) и 59,60 (in the longer term) accordingly. At that stably medium ("orange") indexes of political risks are preserved at all the other region governments. This shows that "Marsh" experts predict violence escalation in Nagorny Karabakh in connection with Azerbaidjan threats. Nevertheless, close connection of Armenia with Russia acts as constraining factor, particularly expressing in Russian military presence on the territory of Armenia that restricts Azerbaidjan actions. Also there are the following political risks, specific for Black sea region countries:  Georgia Euro-Atlantic intensions, situated at the height of their development,  natives of the North and South Caucasus republics join the rows of prohibited in Russia terroristic organization "ISIL",  macroeconomic stability of countries in the region is under the pressure – currencies of region's countries are significantly devaluated in the height of the fast currency transfers fall from abroad and stagnation in investment sector,  social and internal political problems (mass protests and constitutional reform in Armenia, activation of oppositional "United national movement" in Georgia under the conditions of complex economic situation and non-systemic Islamic opposition in Azerbaidjan),  unstable positions of the present government in Moldova, rent by competition for the power,  conflict in the South-East of Ukraine, which complicated relations with neighboring Russia for many years, under continuing poor perspectives of the country economy,  uncertainty around possible dialogues development trends with regional powers – Turkey and Iran. The work is accomplished within the frames of State task realization on 2016 No 007-01114-16 SR, project "Geopolitical transformations in Caspian-Black region: instruments on instability maintenance" according to the program of fundamental researches of RAS № I.13 presidium.