Encouraging Residential Energy Effciency Improvements

In: Petersen , S C 2017 , Encouraging Residential Energy Effciency Improvements . DTU Management .

Abstract

Denne ph.d.- afhandling undersøger potentialet for en kontekstuel tilgang til energi politiker målrettet private husholdninger. De fem kapitler af afhandlingen består af en introduktion der motiverer afhandlingen samt danner et overblik over de inkluderede kapitler med en fælles konklusion, tre artikel-baserede kapitler tiltænkt publicering, og et metodeafsnit omhandlende udvidelser til den eksisterende sampleSelection pakke til det statistiske programme R. Afhandlingens hovedbidrag er primært til energipolitikker og {økonomisk litteratur, men dens bidrag er også relevant for beslægtede discipliner som; socialvidenskab, ingeniørkunst og psykologi. Da husholdninger udgør 25 procent af EU's samlede energiforbrug spiller energieeffektivisering af disse en vital rolle i opfyldelsen af EU's klimamål. Nybyggeri i EU udgør kun 1 procent, hvorved hovedparten af energieffektivisering skal realiseres energirenovationer samt adfærdsændringer. Resultater af incitamentsprogrammer fra de sidste årtier har været blandet, og vist at husholdninger er svære at in uere end hidtil antaget. Dette har ledt til en opfattelse af et "Energy Effciency Gap", som beskriver en situation hvori husholdninger er uvidende om de økonomiske besparelser som kan opnås via investering i energirenovering. Nyere studier indikerer at det økonomiske potentiale i husholdninger er overvurderet. Uagtet manglende konsensus om eksistensen af "Energy Effciency Gap", kan en pragmatisk kontekstuel tilgang med fokus på barriere ved- og fortalere for energirenovering være en farbar retning. Denne afhandling anvender forskellige metoder til at undersøge kontekst som ind ydelse på succes af energiincitamenter målrettet private husholdninger. En meta-analyse baseret på eksisterende litteratur, samt data analyse af afsluttede incitamenter, inklusive data fra afsluttet energirevisionsprogram fra Region Syddanmark, samt et nyt eksperimentelt økonomisk design har dannet baggrund for resultaterne. Den første analyse indikerer en positiv korrelation af indkomst, alder samt uddan nelsesniveau på en husholdnings tilbøjelighed til at udføre energirenoveringer, mens husstandstørrelsen har en negativ ind ydelse. Disse indikatorer er kun delvist signikante grundet begrænset sammenlignelig viden, hvilket understreger nødvendigheden af empiriske studier. Anden analyse viser at visse ændringer i livssituation/levebetingelser øger husholdningers villighed til energirådgivning og investering. Særligt nder vi at ytning og påbegyndelse af pension øger husholdningers villighed til at deltage i gratis energirådgivning, mens at blive gift og ytning korrelerer med husholdningers villighed til at investere. Dette indikerer muligheder for at målrette incitamentsprogrammer til speciffikke husholdninger ved rettidig kontakt til husholdninger. Den afsluttende analyse undersøger potentiallet for "spillover" effekter fremkaldt af indsatser specielt rettet mod adfærd, eksempelvis ved interventioner rettet mod specifik adfærd kan afføde anden positiv og negativ adfærd. I et økonomisk eksperiment finder vi evidens for positiv "spillover" fra sociale normer. Hovedbidragene fra denne analyse skal findes i nyt eksperimentelt design udviklet til systematisk analyse af "spillover" effekter. Overordnet set indikere resultaterne i denne afhandling at en mere kontekstuel tilgang til incitamenter, åbner for hvor husstandens aktuelle forhold som; socio-økonomi, signikante ændringer livssituation eller andet, kan bruges som motivation for energirenovering. Afhandlingens resultater er relevante for "policy design" men dens hovedbidrag omhandler "future policy" da den fremhæver nødvendigheden mere strukturerede energi incitaments forskning med større forankring i eksperimentelle metoder. ; This cumulative PhD thesis explores the potential of a more contextual approach for energy policies targeted at private households. The ve chapters of the thesis consist of an introduction, which motivates the thesis and gives a brief summary of the chapters with a joint conclusion, three paper-based chapters intended for publication, and a methodological chapter for an extension of the existing sampleSelection package in the statistics programme R. The thesis mainly contributes to the energy policy and economics literature, but it is also relevant to related disciplines, such as other social sciences, engineering, and psychology. Energy savings in private households play an important role in achieving reduction targets for the European Union and its member states, as the residential sector constitutes about 25 percent of total nal energy consumption. As only 1 percent is added to the building stock in new housing per year in the EU, the majority of savings must be realized through retrotting and changes in consumption habits. Evidence from policy programs in the last couple of decades has been mixed and it appears that households are harder to reach than previously thought. This has led to the perception that there is an Energy Efficiency Gap, describing a situation in which households are not aware of the nancial savings they could achieve by investing in more energy efficient technologies. However, more recent evidence indicates that the nancial potentials at the household level may have been overstated. While there is still no consensus on whether there is an Energy Efficiency Gap, a pragmatic way forward suggests a more contextual approach that pays closer attention to barriers and promoters of energy efficiency in private homes. Against this background, the thesis applies dierent methodologies to investigate the role of context in energy policies targeted at private households: a meta-analysis drawing on existing evidence in the literature, an ex-post policy analysis based on data from an energy audit programme in Southern Denmark, and a novel experimental economic framework. The rst analysis provides indicative evidence that income, age, and education positively in uence a household's propensity to invest, while household size has a negative effect. However, these ndings are only partly signicant due to a limited base of comparable evidence, highlighting a need for compatibility in empirical studies, and more repetition studies. The second analysis shows that changes in certain life situations increase the propensity for households to have an audit and make energy investments; specically we nd that moving and retiring make households more likely to join a free energy audit programme, while getting married and moving correlates with higher investments. This indicates opportunities to develop more efficient policy programmes that depend on a household response, by reaching out to households at a time when they are more likely to be encouraged. The nal analysis investigates potential spillover eects induced by behavioural policy interventions, i.e. when an intervention aimed at one behaviour may also aect another behaviour positively or negatively. In an economic experiment we nd evidence for a positive spillover induced by a social norms based intervention, but the primary contribution of this part of the thesis is the novel experimental framework developed for the purpose of a systematic analysis of spillovers. Overall, the results of this thesis indicate that a more contextual policy approach holds promise to encourage energy eciency improvements and savings by incorporating the context in which decisions are made, be it the socio-economic circumstances, changes in life situation, or the decision environment. Although the insights generated by the thesis are also relevant for policy design, its main contributions are to future policy research, as it highlights the need for energy policy research to be put on a more robust and evidence-based foundation, mainly through increased application of experimental methods.