Verzerrungen von Konsumentenpreisindizes und ihr Einfluss auf das «reale» Wirtschaftswachstum – dargestellt am Beispiel der USA

Abstract

The paper reviews the sources of «Upward bias» and «Downward bias» in the USConsumer Price Index (CPI) and discusses the changes the Bureau of Labor Statistics has introduced in order to eliminate them. The remaining biases are quantified. Also, the question is raised how much the changes to the CPI have lifted the growth rates of «real» US-GDP upward. It is shown that the divergence in growth rates between the US and the European Union since 1997 can be explained almost entirely in terms of differing statistical methods.