Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz IV - Szenarien bis 2030

Abstract

As a background study for the preparation of the German 2007 Projection Report and other projects of climate policy, scenarios are created in the "Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection IV" project with regard to the development of greenhouse gas emissions from German source sectors for the time period of 2000 to 2030. They are: $\bullet$ a $\textit{with measures scenario}$ (WMS), in which climate protection and energy policy measures adopted within the time period of 2000 to mid-2006 are taken into consideration and which is awarded a high level of prognostic relevance; $\bullet$ a $\textit{without measures scenario}$ (WOMS), in which a hypothetical development is described, had these measures not been adopted; $\bullet$ a $\textit{with additional measures scenario}$ (WAMS), in which the impact of further instruments - defined in coordination with the sponsoring agency - of climate protection and energy policy (or of relevant targets) are also taken into account in the scenario development. Within the scope of the scenario analyses, a detailed assessment is undertaken of the measures of climate protection and energy policy which have been adopted to date and which go beyond, in view of their impact on the development of German greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions of the greenhouses gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol – carbon dioxide (CO$_{2}$), methane (CH$_{4}$), nitrous oxide (N$_{2}$O), halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), perfluorinated hydrocarbons (PFH) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF$_{6}$) – are considered for the following source sectors: energy, industrial processes, product use and waste management. Agriculture (in view of the CH$_{4}$ and N$_{2}$O emissions), land use change and forestry were not incorporated as source sectors in the analyses in accordance with the commission of the sponsoring agency. For the scenario development, an energy system model is deployed, with the help of which the results of detailed – and in part, model-based – sectoral analyses are consolidated to a consistent and ...