Political and Security Perspectives for South East Europe after the Brexit Vote

Abstract

In South East Europe, and specifically in the Western Balkan region, the unfinished processes of regional consolidation have been heavily influenced by the European Union's (EU) integration and conditionality policies. The United Kingdom's (UK) planned withdrawal from the EU, in principle, can have different effects on the EU's own further development. The magnitude of the EU's ability to adapt positively to this challenging situation and the level of resistance by member states against the idea of re-nationalisation will be decisive factors for the specific scenario that will occur after Brexit is implemented. The analysed EU scenarios 'dynamic re-launch', 'risky stalemate' and 'existential crisis' differ significantly in regard to the EU's further ability to stimulate the political actors in South East Europe so as to identify common interests and find compromises with long-lasting positive effects for the region's development.