Evaluation the impact of federal subsidies on the dynamics of differentiation of budgetary security of the RF constituent entities ; Оценка влияния федеральных дотаций на динамику дифференциации бюджетной обеспеченности субъектов РФ

Abstract

The approach to the assessment of budgetary security of RF subject with the use of per capita income of the consolidated budget. This approach is an alternative to the currently used official method of spatial distribution of the resources of the Federal Fund for financial assistance to the regions. The need to develop a new approach is caused by attempts to: simplify the existing methods in terms of reducing the dimension of the array of input data, some of which are not publicly available; increase the objectivity of the individual methods steps (with the exception of expert assessments); leveling necessary operating abstract dimensionless parameters (level of budgetary provision, the tax potential index of budgetary expenditures index). Using the proposed approach assesses the impact of options for allocating federal subsidies to the budgets of RF subjects on the dynamics of inter-regional disparities in terms of "fiscal capacity" and the growth of the Russian economy in 2012-2014. Option fair distribution of federal subsidies involves their direction in the regions; fiscal capacity does not exceed the minimum criteria. Option efficient allocation of grants, as opposed to the previous version, suggests the direction of federal funds to the regions, fiscal capacity exceeds the minimum criteria. Both options are compared to the actual distribution of federal subsidies, carried out according to the official procedure. Quantitative analysis of spatial distribution of government subsidies on the dynamics of regional inequality is based on two indicators: per capita income of the consolidated budget of the subject of the Russian Federation and the average per capita difference between revenues and expenditures of the RF consolidated budget of the subject. Study on economic dynamics of the Russian Federation implies a regression analysis on the basis of which it is possible to obtain new values of the gross regional product of the RF subjects in different variants of the spatial distribution of federal grants. The resulting research estimates show that the considered options for the distribution of subsidies to regional budgets are conflicting in terms of priorities of state policy choice: equality of per capita budgetary security of subjects of the Russian Federation or the accelerated growth of the national economy. ; Предлагается подход к оценке бюджетной обеспеченности субъекта РФ с использованием показателя среднедушевых доходов консолидированного бюджета. На основе официальной статистики по субъектам РФ, находящейся в открытом доступе, оценивается влияние вариантов пространственного распределения федеральных дотаций региональным бюджетам на динамику межрегионального неравенства по показателю «бюджетная обеспеченность» и рост национальной экономики в 2012-2014 гг.