Baltijos regiono šalių elektros energetikos sektoriaus perspektyvinės raidos analizė ; Analysis of perspective development of electric power sector in Baltic region countries

Abstract

In order to assess how Baltic region electricity power sector may change in the future, depending on the different fossil fuel prices and European Union's carbon dioxide emission reduction objectives, prospective analysis was carried out. In this Master's theses existing research on prospective development of Baltic region power sector was reviewed. Also analysis was carried out on the current electricity sector situation in 9 Baltic region countries (Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Germany). Analysis of Baltic region coutries' power sector prospective development is based on created mathematical optimization model using MESSAGE software. In this work there is a detailed description of modelling principles. 4 possible scenarios were analysed by using created mathematical optimization model: low, medium and high fossil fuel price scenarios and a scenario with removed restrictions in which there are no limitations on construction of new nuclear power plants and EU's CO2 emission reduction targets are not considered. Time period from 2016 to 2045 was simulated. Simulation results of 4 different scenarios are presented for Baltic region as a whole and for each country individually.