The Democratic Window of Opportunity:Evidence from Riots in sub-Saharan Africa

In: Aidt , T S & Leon , G 2016 , ' The Democratic Window of Opportunity : Evidence from Riots in sub-Saharan Africa ' , JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION , vol. 60 , no. 4 , pp. 694-717 . https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714564014

Abstract

We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in sub-Saharan Africa and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact on democratic change and supports the "window of opportunity" hypothesis: droughts lead to an increase in the threat of conflict, and incumbents often respond by making democratic concessions.