Valstybės ekonominės politikos sprendimų krizės sąlygomis modeliavimas ; Modelling of state economic policy decisions during crisis

Abstract

Dissertation aim of the research to carry out a complex research of the possibilities to improve the state economic policy decisions in response to the challenges of economic crisis and to develop the modelling measures for these decisions, which would be adequate to the modern needs. The paper carries out empirical research of the economic situation and economic policy decisions during crisis in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and other countries, and develops the viable theoretical model, designed for the state economic policy decisions during crisis, by identifying the empirical research methods for verifying the aforementioned model. Quantitative modeling process applied standart deviation, time sequence, least squares, maximum probability optimisation, null hypothesis H0 and multicolinearity, model p value, t statistics, Durbin-Watson statistics, standart deviation, Spearman rank correlation, autocorrelation, coefficient of determination, factor analysis, random walf with drift RWD process, multi-vector autoregression model VAR analysis, root mean square error RMSE analysis and other empirical modeling research methodology. The developed modelling system is compared with the RMSM.X method, developed by the World Bank, the complex quantitative research of dependencies of government budget revenue, deficit and debt of Lithuania is carried out, and the modelling of the main state tax rates is implemented. The paper volume is 193 pages, there are 46 figures, 14 tables, 20 appendices, 2 footnotes in the paper, the paper consists conclusions and recommendations.