Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization

Abstract

Disease surveillance systems largely focus on infectious diseases with high mortality, whereas less severe diseases often go unreported. Using chicken pox as an example, we demonstrate that Internet queries can be used as a proxy for disease incidence when reporting is lacking. We established that Google Trends accurately reflected clinical cases in countries with surveillance, and thus population-level dynamics of chicken pox. Then, we discovered robust seasonal variation in query behavior, with a striking latitudinal gradient on a global scale. Next, we showed that real-time data-mining of queries could forecast the timing and magnitude of outbreaks. Finally, our analyses revealed that countries with government-mandated vaccination programs have significantly reduced seasonality of queries, indicating vaccination efforts mitigated chicken pox outbreaks.