Zukunft des Personenluftverkehrs : Flugroutenverkehrs- und -wahlprognose ; Nachfrageanalyse durch stochastische Nutzenmaximierung (RUM) sowie szenariotechnische Routen- und Angebotsbestimmung relationsabhängiger Nachfragemengen als Elemente zur Prognose routenspezifischer Passagierzahlen im internationalen Personenluftverkehr

Abstract

The primary object of this dissertation is building a model to forecast the number of route related passengers. This model should be able to explain the actual numbers of passengers and therefore predict route related numbers in the future. A model of that attributes does not exist. However it is not possible to use simple methods like trend extrapolation or one-dimensional regression for problems on such a small scope. The variety of influencing factors makes it necessary to create a new complex tool to forecast the number of route related passengers. This tool is divided into four modular parts:1. Evaluation of total passenger numbers corresponding to a distinct original region (e.g. country or catchment area of an airport) and a destination (or a number of destinations)2. Generation of relevant possible routes3. Creation of attributes related to these routes (e.g. price, frequency, or length of flight)4. Calculation of route related passenger numbers Finally this dissertation builds the fundament for a causal, quantitative, rather exact, generalized, and objective forecast of air passenger transportation. This makes it even for a layman possible to achieve good forecasting results on the very small level of routes. Today this is of high importance for the planning of airports, for improving the competitiveness of airlines and alliances. In addition this helps macroeconomists and politicians for an optimum control of air transportation. Because of increasing capacity problems in combination with limited financial resources their importance will further increase.