Possible futures for South Africa's transition to a low carbon economy towards 2050

Abstract

South Africa together with the rest of the world have been caught up in a new policy wave of developing policies that support the move towards sustainable, low-carbon and climate-resilient economies underpinned by the desire to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as per declared Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). However, South Africa's economic development model is still characterised by a coal-based energy structure, which imposes a significant stress on its natural resources and environment, due to vast quantities of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Currently, in South Africa there is no sign of any coherent plan for achieving the socio-technological change that the transition to a low carbon economy vision implies. The existing policies, strategies and plans are not yet fully aligned with the low carbon transition agenda as they were developed prior to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement call. There has been minimal or no noticeable change in South Africa's carbon-dependence, which may further lead to market failure effects. The existing policy and regulatory framework for low carbon economy (LCE) transition is perceived complimentary; but is defined by short-term, overarching and vague policies that lack forward thinking far-sighted element of framing the desired future. To tackle the short-termism of South African LCE policy, the study commissioned a mixed-method, futures research approach in order to facilitate a kind of forward thinking required for integrated manoeuvres and long-term vision of different alternating choices with a cognisance of their respective repercussions. The primary research objective of this study was to develop and illustrate possible scenarios for South Africa's low-carbon economy transition futures over the next 30 years, taking into consideration numerous uncertainties about the future structure of South Africa's economy, costs of the transition as well as potential technological breakthroughs that could emerge. This objective was achieved with the ultimate description of possible futures - Ses'fikile, Stimela, Inqanawa and Siyaya phambili, and the identification of Ses'fikile as the desired future state; as outlined by the Integrated Vision for South Africa's transition to an inclusive, competitive, climate-resilient and low carbon economy future. Further, the secondary objectives outlined in Chapter 1 and 2 of this research study were realised through an all-encompassing literature review, political economy and political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal (PESTEL) analysis, the Real-Time Delphi exercise as well as scenario planning methodology. This research study extracts intuitions from academic, policy planning and futures research in order to discover the prevailing frontiers in the progression of both the theoretical and real-world requirements considered as essential for fundamental economic transformation to a low-carbon future. Extensive contribution of this study included; -  Closing the literature gaps that exist in terms of gaining a deeper understanding into insights on the potential drivers, impacts and global trends in the low-carbon economy transition space.  Pushing forward a narrative within and between the economic development, policy decision-making and environment about how to visualise and plan for a decarbonized future economy for South Africa.  Futures research approach afforded this research study an opportunity to engage with the uncertainties of the low-carbon economy future, while engaging with emerging issues, trends and weak signals that are transforming South Africa's social horizons.  Policy decision-makers were afforded a chance to improve their policy making while addressing the dynamic nature of implications of the current economic development trajectories, alternative future possibilities as well as transitioning to a preferred low-carbon future. In conclusion, contributions made by low-carbon experts who participated in this study provided bigger picture insights for policy decision makers and can provide timely interventions while deliberating about South Africa's low-carbon future. Finally, conclusions drawn and recommendations made would assist in the stimulation of discussions for further policy research. Key concepts: Low carbon economy, decarbonisation, futures research, climate-resilient, scenario planning, Real-Time Delphi. ; Thesis (DBA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, 2021