Recession: what are the chances? ; NZIER Insight ; 83/2019

In: http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11566

Abstract

Discussion about the potential for a recession to hit at least one of the major economies has intensified in recent months. The US Federal Reserve has become more cautious about the outlook for the US economy, and over the past year has moved from a hiking bias to cutting interest rates. Here in New Zealand, the Reserve Bank embarked on another easing cycle by cutting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May meeting and followed up with a 50 basis points cut at its August meeting. We look at what current conditions are telling us about the state of the New Zealand economy, and by considering the common indicators of a recession discuss how worried we should be. We also look at the levers available to try and combat the effects of a recession.