Assessing the land resource-food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Agraïments: We acknowledge support from EU Seventh Framework Programme, theme ICT-2013.5.4: ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling under contract no. 611688; the United Nations Environment Programme, IRP, sub-programme Resource Efficiency (61P1) under contract no. 2105-CPL-5068-3639-1161-1161; the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (grant 8151002); and the National Science and Technology Major Project (2015ZX07203-005). ; The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a comprehensive new approach to development rooted in planetary boundaries, equity, and inclusivity. The wide scope of the SDGs will necessitate unprecedented integration of siloed policy portfolios to work at international, regional, and national levels toward multiple goals and mitigate the conflicts that arise from competing resource demands. In this analysis, we adopt a comprehensive modeling approach to understand how coherent policy combinations can manage trade-offs among environmental conservation initiatives and food prices. Our scenario results indicate that SDG strategies constructed around Sustainable Consumption and Production policies can minimize problem-shifting, which has long placed global development and conservation agendas at odds. We conclude that Sustainable Consumption and Production policies (goal 12) are most effective at minimizing trade-offs and argue for their centrality to the formulation of coherent SDG strategies. We also find that alternative socioeconomic futures - mainly, population and economic growth pathways - generate smaller impacts on the eventual achievement of land resource -related SDGs than do resource-use and management policies. We expect that this and future systems analyses will allow policymakers to negotiate trade-offs and exploit synergies as they assemble sustainable development strategies equal in scope to the ambition of the SDGs.