Glacial refugia and mid-Holocene expansion delineate the current distribution of Castanea sativa in Europe

Abstract

We thank J.A. López-Saéz for very useful comments that improved the quality of the manuscript. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. JVRD was supported by "Severo Ochoa" PhD Grant (BP 12-093) and by funding through "Ayuda para Estancias Breves" (EB15-12) for a research stay at Masaryk University (Brno, Czech Republic) in 2015. Both grants were provided by the "Plan de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación" (PCTI) Government of Principado de Asturias. BJA was supported by the project Employment of Best Young Scientists for International Cooperation Empowerment (CZ.1.07/2.3.00/30.0037) co-financed from the European Social Fund and the state budget of the Czech Republic. MC was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Centre of Excellence PLADIAS, 14-36079G). ; Areas of Quaternary refugia for tree species have been mainly delineated based on fossil records and phylogeography, but niche modelling can provide useful complementary information. Here we use palaeodistribution modelling to test the main hypotheses about the distribution of Castanea sativa in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene in Europe. We computed distribution models for current climatic conditions using different methods, and projected them onto three climatic scenarios for the LGM and the mid-Holocene. The projections were validated with pollen and charcoal records. LGM refugia were suggested in the north of the Iberian, Italian and Balkan Peninsulas, and in northern Anatolia. The projections for the mid-Holocene indicated high climatic suitability and geographic expansion of the species range across southern Europe, including some areas where the species is nowadays considered as non-native. In general, our models are consistent with the patterns proposed with pollen and charcoal records, and partially also with phylogeographic information inferred from genetic data, suggesting that the most suitable areas for C. sativa were extended significantly during the mid-Holocene, but declined afterwards and lost connectivity. The projected patterns were compatible with existing palaeobotanical records of C. sativa and provide a spatially-explicit picture of the species past distribution.