In-plane fragility and parametric analyses of masonry arch bridges exposed to flood hazard using surrogate modeling techniques

Abstract

Natural disasters are unavoidable and can cause serious damage to bridges, which may lead to catastrophic losses, both human and economic. Therefore, the assessment of bridges exposed to these events is of paramount importance to identify possible mitigation needs. The objective of the present work is to present consistent tools that may allow us to obtain the failure probability of a masonry arch bridge under a flood event, leading to local scour. Surrogate models were implemented to ease the computational cost of the probabilistic analysis. Moreover, a stochastic parametric analysis based on the geotechnical properties of the soil components of masonry arch bridges located in Portugal was performed. The results show the failure mechanism of the masonry arch bridges when subjected to scour-induced settlements and the influence of soil density on the failure probability obtained for different flow discharge values and angles of attack. The presented methodology and derived fragility curves can be used to assess bridge performance under a flood event, thus providing useful information for bridge management and monitoring. ; This work was partly financed by FCT/MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) under the R&D Unit Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Engineering Structures (ISISE), under reference UIDB/04029/2020. The second author would like to thank FCT—Portuguese Scientific Foundation—for research grant SFRH/BD/144749/2019. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmed under grant agreement No 769255. This document reflects only the views of the author(s). Neither the Innovation and Networks Executive Agency (INEA) nor the European Commission is in any way responsible for any use that may be made of the information it ...