Tunisia in 2020: political struggles at the time of Covid-19 ; La Tunisie en 2020 : les luttes politiques au temps du Covid-19

Abstract

International audience ; The Covid-19 crisis occurred at a time when the economic situation was already critical. It led to an 8.6% drop in GDP, the largest in the Maghreb excluding Libya. The general containment of March-April certainly made it possible to control a first wave of the epidemic "but at the cost of a massive recessionary effect (a 19% drop in GDP in the second quarter on a quarterly basis). Tourism (5% of GDP, but up to 14% of GDP indirectly), already in a bad way, collapsed. The epidemic rebound in the autumn led to the return of restrictive measures from October onwards, which hampered the economic recovery. The social protest movements that grew strongly in November and December (see focus) continued into early 2021 with the outbreak of a wave of urban riots that were violently repressed by the forces of order. In economic conditions that have been severely degraded by the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, it is not completely unthinkable that the security establishment, which is in the process of becoming autonomous, may have a desire to regain authoritarian control over a parliamentary regime that is entangled in conflicts over institutional politics and collective action, which it considers to be chaos. ; La crise du Covid-19 est intervenue dans une conjoncture déjà marquée par une situation économique critique. Elle a entraîné un recul du PIB de 8,6 %, le plus important du Maghreb hors Libye. Le confinement général de mars-avril a certes permis de contrôler une première vague épidémique « mais au prix d'un effet récessif massif (chute du PIB de 19% au deuxième trimestre en glissement trimestriel) » . Le tourisme (5 % du PIB, mais jusqu'à 14 % du PIB de manière indirecte), déjà mal en point, s'est effondré. Le rebond épidémique de la rentrée a provoqué le retour des mesures restrictives à partir d'octobre qui ont obéré la reprise économique. Les mouvements de protestations sociales qui ont connu une forte croissance en novembre et décembre (voir le focus) se sont prolongés au début de 2021 ...