MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SERBIA ; MAKROEKONOMSKE DETERMINANTE EKONOMSKOG RASTA U SRBIJI

Abstract

Monetary policy is an important segment of the economic policy of each country where inflation and monetary aggregates represent its significant components. Their movement reflects the trends in the volume of money and the price level which is of great relevance for the economic situation in the country. The aim of the paper is to manifest the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the real gross domestic product. In this paper, inflation (INF), monetary aggregate (M3), public expenditures (PE) and foreign direct investment (FDI) are used as independent variables, while the gross domestic product is determined as a dependent variable. The results showed that there is a positive relationship between GDP and INF, PE and FDI, but it is statistically not significant. On the other hand, M3 has a negative impact on GDP, it is statistically significant. Using correlation matrix, a very high correlation between INF and PE was found, while the lowest correlation was recorded between GDP and INF. ; Monetarna politika je važan segment ekonomske politike svake zemlje gde inflacija i monetarni agregati predstavljaju značajne komponente. Njihovo kretanje prikazuje trendove u količini novca i nivou cena koje su od velike važnosti za ekonomske prilike u zemlji. Cilj rada je prikazati uticaj makroekonomskih indikatora na realni bruto domaći proizvod. U radu, inflacija (INF), monetarni agregat (M3), javni rashodi (PE) i strane direktne investicije (FDI) su korišćeni kao nezavisne varijable, dok je realni bruto domaći proizvod (GDP) određen kao zavisna varijabla. Rezultati su pokazali da postoji pozitivan odnos između GDP i INF, PE i FDI, ali nije statistički značajan. S druge strane, M3 ima negativan uticaj na GDP i statistički je značajan. Koristeći korelacionu matricu, utvrđena je vrlo visoka korelacija između INF i PE, dok je najniža korelacija zabeležena između GDP i INF.