Proyectos de generación eléctrica de origen geotérmico en Alemania: análisis económico de un caso de estudio aplicando el método de las opciones reales

Abstract

It is not a novelty that renewable energies are being the source of energy towards where the efforts of different countries are aiming to mitigate the negative environmental impact generated by years of fossil-based energy use. In this sense, the German government has developed a regulatory framework for the development of electricity generation projects of geothermal origin. This Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) came into effect on April 1, 2000. In June 2011, the German Bundestag approved an amendment to this law that came into effect on January 1, 2012 (Renewable Energy Sources Act EEG 2012) [1]. This research analyzes this regulatory framework and focuses on the options that are presented to the promoters that are susceptible to valuation by applying the methodology of the real options. In particular, the paper analyzes the influence that this regulatory framework has on the valuation of geothermal energy. Given the options that this regulation incorporates, it has been considered appropriate to incorporate the effect of these real options into the valuation of projects. Within the scope of real options, investment projects can be measured as a set of purchase options (CALL) and sales (PUT), which represent the different types of opportunities or options that exist in the project [2]. The fundamental point in the evaluation of projects through real options is to identify the options that appear in the horizon of the life of the project [3]. Until now, the few contributions that address the role of the regulator in generating investment value through real options focus on general environmental aspects [4] or the valuation of generic renewable sources [5]. In this sense, Balibrea et al. [6], [7] evaluate investment projects in offshore wind energy in Denmark and land wind in Germany and Spain, respectively, with real options existing in the regulatory framework. As a result, two real regulatory options have been detected. The incorporation of these two options has a very positive value for the project ...