The 20th Anniversary CHEPS Scenarios - The European higher education and research landscape 2020

Abstract

The turn of the millennium has challenged many to give their view on the prospects for the next 1000 years. In the field of higher education, the timeframe is typically much shorter. While this may be put down partly to modesty, the dynamics of higher education make prediction a risky business. CHEPS has been in the business of higher education policy research for twenty years. To celebrate this important anniversary we offer our own contribution to the debate on the future of European higher education and research. Goals and ambitions for 2010 have been set in the context of the Bologna Declaration and the Lisbon process. What will be the results of the endeavours of those responsible for higher education and those working in higher education? We did not set out to predict any of this, but rather to present plausible and coherent stories about different possible futures. We hope that these will invoke reflection and discussion (and possibly anticipatory behaviour: back to the future!). Our contribution has built on the experience we gained with the successful 2001 CHEPS scenarios on Dutch higher education (¿The Gardens¿). In shifting our focus to Europe as a whole, we carried out a Delphi-survey to gather the views of higher education experts across Europe on the likelihood and desirability of certain developments in European higher education. The results of the two rounds of this survey were valuable inputs to our three scenarios. This 20th anniversary publication contains the three CHEPS scenarios as well as a brief report on the major findings of the Delphi-survey. We found the process to be a real creative challenge that drew on our full capacity for exchanging ideas and debating different points of view. We hope that reading and thinking about the scenarios will give you as much insight and pleasure as we have experienced in developing them.