METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE INFLUENCE OF SURPRISE EFFECT ON MISSION EXECUTION EFFECTIVENESS IN A SPECIAL OPERATION TO NEUTRALIZE ILLEGAL ARMED GROUPS ; МЕТОДИКА ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ ВПЛИВУ ЧИННИКІВ РАПТОВОСТІ НА ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ ВИКОНАННЯ ЗАВДАНЬ У СПЕЦІАЛЬНІЙ ОПЕРАЦІЇ ІЗ ЗНЕШКОДЖЕННЯ НЕЗАКОННОГО ЗБРОЙНОГО ФОРМУВАННЯ

Abstract

From the beginning of the anti-terrorism operation in the east of Ukraine, during the period April – June of 2014, the effectiveness of illegal armed groups neutralization was not enough, as evidenced by underperformance and a large amount of losses and damages of military units and low enforcement forces. Increasing the combat employment effectiveness of a unit of the National Guard of Ukraine in the special operation to neutralize illegal armed groups is possible through the use of surprise principle, which doesn`t require engagement of considerable additional resources. The surprise of actions of the National Guard of Ukraine units must be understood as an ability to use unexpected for enemy modalities and methods of operation in a sudden place and at unknown time in order to seize the initiative and take the advantages. Surprise allows army to take possession of enemy unexpectedly, cause the panic in his disposition, immobilize attempts for holdout, drastically reduce combat effectiveness, disorganize the management, create favorable conditions for obtaining success with the least loss of forces and equipment.In this article a tactic of estimation of influence of surprise effect on the mission performance effectiveness in a special operation to neutralize illegal armed groups has been created. It allows appraising the significance of performance possibilities and completion effectiveness, and also making conclusions about their accordance to selected criteria, reducing time for conceptual development of Spec Op with increasing in quality factor and planning accuracy. The methodology is based on mathematical models: an estimation of the readiness level of the NGU unit to perform missions of the intended purpose; an estimation of the march (maneuver) capacities; an estimation of the reconnaissance capacity, a capability to neutralize an illegal armed group; a performance of a mission based of fire duels. These models show the actions dynamics of the NGU unit in the Spec Op to neutralize illegal armed groups. Quantitative and qualitative composition of developed capability indicators and mission effectiveness aims to obtain sufficiently steady results of expected actions evaluations of the unit of NGU in the Spec Op, and during an automated calculation of technique realization of their meanings it meets requirement of flexibility and sufficiency of conceptual development and operation plan. ; Викладено методику визначення впливу чинників раптовості на ефективність виконання завдань у спеціальній операції із знешкодження незаконного збройного формування, завдяки якій за допомогою математичного апарату теорії вогневих дуелей з'являється можливість спрогнозувати ефективність виконання бойового завдання формуванням Національної гвардії України залежно від очікуваних чинників раптовості його дій.