Report on future farm demographics and structural change in selected regions of the EU

Abstract

This report focuses on the effects farm demographics, specifically farm succession, have on farm structural change, specifically the presence of a successor. It will do so using a mixed methods approach to first understand the demographic change in two European farming regions, the Altmark (Germany) and Flanders (Belgium) with focus groups. Based on information from the focus groups and empirical data, we simulate two scenarios in each region using the agent-based model the Agricultural Policy Simulator (AgriPoliS). The scenarios use the demographics extension, which allows the calibration of the model region's farmer age and succession demographics, detailed in SURE-Farm Deliverable 3.4. One scenario is calibrated to empirical data with an EU-based estimation of successor likelihood, and the other which simulates 100% successor likelihood. The simulations are then analyzed with various farm structure indicators to see what effect farm demographics have on farm structures. ; BE; DE; en; contact: pitson@iamo.de