A Framework for Rapid Assessment of Wildlife Markets in the Asia-Pacific Region for Relative Risk of Future Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks

Abstract

Decades of warnings by conservationists, epidemiologists, and virologists that the trade and consumption of wildlife could result in serious zoonotic pandemics have gone largely unheeded. Now the world is ravaged by COVID-19 that has caused tremendous loss of life and economic and societal disruption, with dire predictions of more destructive and frequent pandemics. There are now calls to tightly regulate and even enact complete wildlife trade bans, while others call for more nuanced approaches since many rural people rely on wildlife for sustenance. Given forces of political and societal expediency and limitations to enforcing bans, a response closer to the latter is more likely to unfold. But this will require monitoring and assessing trade situations for zoonotic risks. We present a framework for government authorities in the public health and wildlife sectors to assess wildlife trade situations for risks of serious zoonoses in order to inform policies to curtail or control the trade, much of which is illegal in most countries. The framework is based on available knowledge of different wildlife taxa traded in the Asia-Pacific Region, taxa known to carry highly virulent and transmissible viruses, and broad categories of market types and trade chains.