Johnson may yet bring House speakership to LA

Blog: Between The Lines

Abstract

Louisiana will have another bite at the apple when
Republican Rep. Mike Johnson receives
consideration for the U.S. House of Representative speakership this week.

Upon
the deposing of former Speaker Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy earlier this month,
the House GOP first gave consideration to GOP Rep. Steve Scalise. But several
holdouts within the Republican Conference made it clear to him that he could
not gain the narrow margin necessary to win, and he withdrew his name with
plans to remain as Majority Leader – currently with Hale Boggs the only Louisianans
to serve in that role since it became institutionalized at the start of the 20th
century.

With Scalise ruling himself out, the Conference
then tried to settle on GOP Rep. Jim
Jordan, Judiciary Committee chairman. Another small but different coterie
of Republicans objected to his candidacy – Scalise rejected for not being conservative
enough in being part of a leadership team having to compromise from time to
time (American Conservative
Union rating of 84 in the 117th Congress, 91 lifetime, where 100
means voting for the conservative preference every time), Jordan losing out because
some thought him too conservative (ACU rating of 100 last Congress and lifetime).
At that, the Conference decided to throw the process open to multiple candidates
simultaneously, which later this week may resolve the issue.

Johnson, currently considered the fourth-ranked
member of the party by virtue of being vice chairman of the Conference, announced
with several others that they will vie to replace McCarthy. Only one has a more
prestigious post than he, the now-second-ranked Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota who entered
Congress a decade ago a term before Johnson. However, Emmer (lifetime 80, last
Congress 73) actually has voted less conservatively than McCarthy or Scalise,
so the discontent of even a few who enthusiastically backed Jordan for his ideological
purity might sink his candidacy.

By contrast, Johnson might be able to thread the
needle. He's seen as conservative enough (92 lifetime, 91 last Congress) and as
personable to bring disparate wings of the party together. But two questions cloud
his chances.

First, the same handful of GOP members distrustful
of the leadership under McCarthy may hold that against him. That fuels the bid
of GOP Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern
(lifetime 98, last Congress 100), who is chairman of the party-affiliated
Republican Study Committee, a collection of the majority consistent
conservatives in the party, who argues his recent entrance into the chamber
(third term) and not having held a leadership position leaves him out of
simmering personality conflicts and thus could unite best the party.

The other is the role of an inconvenient geographical
fact; selecting Johnson would give Louisiana the top two positions in the party
and chamber, which never has happened before, magnified by the relative small
size of the Louisiana delegation. Members may balk at that arrangement
funneling vast power to the delegation.

The winner likely would come from these three, with
others probably too junior or too far outside the party power elite, although a
potential dark horse candidate could be Texas' Republican Rep. Pete Sessions, who in
a long career has held important party posts but who a few years ago stepped
back from leadership. Johnson may make history as Louisiana's first Speaker,
capping a remarkable rise in under a decade from crack constitutional lawyer
outside of government to achieving one of the highest elected ranks in American
government.