The future ain't what it used to be

Blog: Just the social facts, ma'am

Abstract

 Back in 2011, I wrote about the question "As you look to the future, do you think life for people generally will get better, or will it get worse."  It's been asked once since then (in 2018), so here is an update.           Better  Worse  Same   DK         NetFeb  1952    45   33     12   10           +12July 1962    55   23     12   10           +32Jan  1979    46   46      3    6             0Sept 1989*   57   28     12    4           +29Jan  2009    61   31      3    5           +30Aug  2018    53   40      2    5           +13At the time, my main point was simply that opinion had been a lot more pessimistic in the 1970s than it was in the most recent survey.  This point continues to be relevant, but the difference between 2009 and 2018 is also interesting.  In recent years, Republican assessments of things seem to have been more affected by the party of the president than Democrats:  Republicans become substantially more positive in Republican administrations and more pessimistic in Democratic administrations, while Democrats are less variable.  Consequently, other things equal, average opinion is more positive under Republican administrations (an example).  This has been suggested as a reason that opinions about the economy today are more negative than you would expect from the basic economic conditions.  This question could be an exception--opinion was less optimistic under Trump than under Obama.  However, the 2009 survey was taken at the very beginning of the Obama administration, when there seemed to be a general feeling of goodwill.**  It's unfortunate that it wasn't asked again during the Obama administration.Breaking it down by party identification, and adding 1979 for comparison, here is the percent saying that life will get better:            Rep       Dem      Ind1979         50%       44%     49%2009         53%       70%     59%2018         61%       48%     51%In 1979, party differences were small (and Democrats were least optimistic); by 2009, they were substantial, and they didn't grow between 2009 and 2018.  *This question asked about people in the United States over the next ten years.  The same survey also asked about people in "developing nations" and "other industrialized nations" over the next ten years:  answers were slightly more optimistic (60%-20% and 64%-16%).**It was actually taken a few days before Obama's inauguration.  [Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]