Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012

In: PS: political science & politics, Band 45, Heft 4, S. 644-647

Abstract

Do our models of political behavior bear any resemblance to reality? Forecasting
elections is one opportunity to assess whether our models of voting behavior are
accurate. Over the past few decades, political scientists have been willing to put
themselves out there to forecast elections. Explaining a past event allows us the
ability to retrofit our models before we make them available to the broader
community. In short, forecasting elections provides us the opportunity to develop
humility. The forecasting community has done a reasonable job over the past few
elections. Aside from 2000, forecasters have been largely accurate. Even in 2000,
the forecasting community can claim a modest victory. The community was right about
the popular vote winner; it just happened that the popular vote winner lost the
election that counts—the Electoral College.