Uncertainty and Turnout

In: Political analysis: PA ; the official journal of the Society for Political Methodology and the Political Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association, Band 9, Heft 1, S. 45-57

Abstract

This article develops a model that simultaneously considers individual turnout and vote choice while also accounting for uncertainty about candidates. The theoretical development of this model implies that the effects of uncertainty on turnout vary with the strength of individual preferences. Application of the model to individual choice in the 1996 American presidential election confirms that decreasing uncertainty about the character traits of the candidates decreases the probability of abstention for individuals with strong preferences but increases the probability of abstention for individuals with weak preferences.