Foreign debt in Asia Pacific and the Latin American and Caribbean region: is there a cause for concern?

In: European business review, Band 98, Heft 4, S. 235-244

Abstract

Many countries in both the LAC region and Asia Pacific have large and growing foreign debts. Country risk ratios and the profile of foreign debts for the majority of these countries are near or exceed widely regarded warning thresholds. Chronic budget and funding problems regionwide, including massive infrastructure investment needs and rising social spending pressures, will lead to greater reliance on foreign borrowing. That will contribute to debt accumulation and rising debt‐servicing burdens. Economic slowdown, massive banking and financial sector restructuring, erosion of export competitiveness and declining foreign exchange reserves will increase the likelihood that these countries will be unable to fully meet their foreign debt‐servicing obligations. The risk of debt default will be greatly increased over the next decade. Mounting public criticism will make it tougher to arrange future international financial rescue packages, such as those extended to Mexico and Thailand, for cash‐strapped sovereigns. As Canada's economic profile rises in emerging markets, greater monitoring of country risks is warranted.