The Danish Election 1998

In: Scandinavian political studies, Band 22, Heft 1, S. 67-81

Abstract

The article analyzes the Danish national election in March 1998. Jdged from the aggregate figures, Denmark has stabilized. Net volatility was moderate, 'bloc' volatility was close to zero, and despite forecasts of a non‐socialist victory, the Social Democratic‐led government managed to continue. Further, in the 1990s, the periods between elections have been close to the maximum four years. Therefore, the old picture from the 1970s of Danish politics as highly unstable and as extremely volatile is now outdated. Quite the contrary at the level of individual voters. Close to a third shifted from one party to another, and even among voters who did not shift, a substantial proportion had considered voting for another party. Individual voter mobility seems to be a result of weak voter differentiation between different parties, and not a result of protest and outspoken dissatisfaction. Whatever the explanation, individual volatility is an omen of possible future instability: There is no guarantee that different voter movements will always balance out.