STATISTICAL VERSUS SALES FORCE–EXECUTIVE OPINION SHORT RANGE FORECASTS: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS CASE STUDY

In: Decision sciences, Band 7, Heft 2, S. 310-318

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a comparison of statistical techniques versus a sales force‐executive opinion approach to forecasting single item demand over a five year period for a single company. Three statistical techniques are used: Winter's three parameter exponential smoothing model, Brown's harmonic model, and Box‐Jenkins methodology. These techniques are compared against the company's forecasts and actual sales for a five year period. The results indicate an interesting area for further research.