PREDICTION AND INFERENCE IN CRIMINOLOGY

In: Criminology: the official publication of the American Society of Criminology, Band 14, Heft 2, S. 177-188

Abstract

Abstract The calculus of probability constitutes an elegant formal model for the various questions of prediction in criminology. However, the use of this model has been criticized for its failure to deal with individual instances vis‐à‐vis group phenomena. It has been argued that since probability is a function of classes or sequence of events, no meaning can be attached to the probability of a single event. This paper presents a logical analysis of this aspect of probability and prediction. The proposal of logical probability is suggested as a meaningful explication of the prediction and the probability of a single event.