Withstanding the Great Recession Like China

In: The Manchester School, Band 87, Heft 2, S. 138-182

Abstract

Data show that the United States, Europe, and even countries with lesser ties to the international financial system have suffered large permanent losses in aggregate output and employment since the financial crisis, despite unprecedented monetary injections. However, the symptoms of the Great Recession were not observed in China, despite a 45% permanent drop in its exports relative to historical trend. We study the precise channels through which the stimulus programs work in China and construct a simple model to rationalize the dramatically different impacts of stimulus programs across countries.