Static and Dynamic Models of Retrospective Voting: A Clarification and Application to the Individual Level

In: Politics & policy, Band 47, Heft 5, S. 859-876

Abstract

This study draws attention to an important distinction between different types of models in the field of retrospective voting, namely static and dynamic models. Both types of models are often used interchangeably, but their interpretation and implications are fundamentally different. Furthermore, while both types have been used in aggregate‐level studies, so far, most studies on the individual level rely on static models. However, there is a specific research interest in individual‐level dynamic models. This article introduces the dynamic model at the individual level, and discusses its methodological advantages and disadvantages. It concludes with an empirical application, indicating how different model specifications lead to a different interpretation of model coefficients, and the applicability of previous research findings on the individual level.Related ArticlesDyck, Joshua, and Annika Hagley. 2012. "Political Geography, Direct Democracy, and the Reasoning Voter: Spatial Proximity, Symbolic Politics, and Voting on California's Proposition 83." Politics & Policy 40 (2): 195‐220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00346.xNielson, Lindsay. 2017. "Ranked Choice Voting and Attitudes toward Democracy in the United States: Results from a Survey Experiment." Politics & Policy 45 (4): 535‐570. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12212Stegmaier, Mary, and Michael S. Lewis‐Beck. 2009. "Learning the Economic Vote: Hungarian Forecasts, 1998‐2010." Politics & Policy 37 (4): 769‐780. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00197.x