Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term

In: Risk analysis: an international journal

Abstract

AbstractThe world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short‐term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change‐point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID‐19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO2 emissions. However, this study shows that CO2 emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of CO2 emissions recovery for different sectors.