Red to Purple? Changing Demographics and Party Change in Texas

In: Social science quarterly, Band 102, Heft 4, S. 1330-1348

Abstract

Objective Texas is regarded as a safe Republican state, yet in recent elections Democrats have gained electoral ground. This study investigates if generational replacement and demographic changes are leading to an increase in Democratic identification, with the potential to create an environment for increasingly competitive elections. A competitive Texas will have national political implications.Method Party identification and ideology are analyzed, with line graphs and linear regression, using public opinion surveys of Texans from 2009 to 2019. The impact of generation cohorts and demographics are the main independent variables of interest.Results The findings demonstrate that younger cohorts of white Texans are less likely to identify as Republican and older cohorts of white Texans are most likely. All cohorts of Texans of color are likely to identify as Democrats.Conclusions Generational and demographic changes are leading to an increase in Democratic party identification and a decline in Republican identification. The mobilization by parties of young Texans, who are trending toward Democrats, and people of color is critical to the future of Texas politics.