Timing of Industrialization, Domestic Politics and Strategic Choices: A Theoretical Evaluation of American Grand Strategy in Managing the Rise of China

In: Chinese journal of international review, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 2050002

Abstract

The rise and fall of the major powers have been the most fundamental driving force in shaping international systems since the Industrial Revolution. During this recurrent process, the rise of new major powers and their impacts on the established international systems have been the core concern of dominant states. Therefore, American scholars of international politics have been dedicating themselves to the study of how to appropriately manage the rising-versus-dominant-power dyads to maintain the stability of systems and the dominant states' leading position. On the other hand, from the Chinese perspective, this question is of equal importance and deserves some more attention, because China, as a rising power, needs to be aware of grand strategies that dominant states may adopt in managing potential challengers, both in theory and history. Only in this way could China finally achieve its goal of a peaceful rise. However, after literature review, we found that, partly attributable to the mainstream Realist paradigm, the existing researches have three main deficiencies: ambiguity of analytical levels, lack of case studies and incomplete theoretical construction. Therefore, this paper first summarizes, layers and combines strategies of dominant states in managing the rising powers. Then, it goes beyond the mainstream Realist paradigm, taking into consideration the factors of timing of industrialization, domestic politics and strategic choices, demonstrating that different rising powers, as well as the same rising power in different periods of history, have exerted varying degrees of impacts on the established international systems. Thus, the dominant states should apply targeted grand strategies to manage them. Finally, based on the theoretical and historical research findings, this paper specifically analyzes the US–China relations today, pointing out the problems within American grand strategy in managing the rise of China since 2010, and the theoretically appropriate choice in the future.