Towards a Stable Peace in the Baltic Sea Region?

In: Cooperation and conflict: journal of the Nordic International Studies Association, Band 35, Heft 4, S. 355-388

Abstract

In this article, some of the possibilities and obstacles involved in attaining stable peace in the Baltic Sea region are analysed. By stable peace is understood a relationship in which military conflict resolution has become unthinkable regardless of how serious a prospective conflict may become. It is argued that stable peace does not presently exist in the region as a whole, but that instead the situation resembles what is elaborated in this article as an integrative peace built on trust, one in which elements of security competition remain in place. The article establishes an analytical framework of different peace types around the concepts of distrust, trust and confidence. This framework is subsequently employed in an analysis of developments in the Baltic Sea region after the Cold War. The analysis shows that the extensive web of cooperative schemes in place in the region shows the promise of a move towards stable peace. In addition, democratic developments in the region generally point in the same direction. One word of caution concerns the democratic developments in Russia — while generally promising, this fundamental parameter remains to be settled permanently.