Rapid Economic Growth in India: Technical Change in Agriculture, Irrigation and Food Security

In: The Indian economic journal, Band 64, Heft 1-4, S. 115-136

Abstract

We explore till 2040 the role of technical change in agriculture, irrigation and concern for food security in rapid economic growth in India. India aspires to achieve double-digit growth. For a densely populated country of 1.2 billion people with growing incomes meeting its increasing and diversifying food needs will be a challenge. We explore this using a multi-sector, inter-temporal optimising model with 20 expenditure classes, 10 rural and 10 urban, each with its own linear expenditure system derived from an underlying non-linear demand system. We also assess the diversification of demand that is likely to occur and impact on poverty under different alternatives. At least a 4 per cent growth rate of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) is needed to support GDP growth rates in excess of 8 per cent for which a slightly optimistic agriculture TFPG growth rate of 2 per cent along with a slightly optimistic development of irrigation potential to 90 million hectare (Mha) (net) is needed. JEL Classification: C61, C67, O13, O21, O33