China's Military after the Sixteenth Party Congress: Long March to Eternity

In: Journal of Asian and African studies: JAAS, Band 38, Heft 4-5, S. 416-446

Abstract

Among the numerous issues concerning the Chinese military in the aftermath of the Sixteenth Party Congress, this article will concentrate on three interrelated topics: the trend of China's military capability, debates about military strategies, and civil-military relations. Following a layout of China's security environment, the article will examine its changing military capability and force concentrations. Changes in its military development require an assessment of China's strategies and defense policies. Moreover, the leadership transition in the Sixteenth Party Congress provides a compelling need to investigate China's civil-military relations, which will affect regime stability and governance in Chinese politics. Several challenges lie ahead for China's military. Chinese leaders will have to make difficult choices in prioritizing various weapons systems for a credible deterrence and compellence capability. China's military strategy and force structure will also depend on the development of U.S.-China relations. Finally, a smooth resolution of the current Jiang-Hu dual leadership as a result of the Sixteenth Party Congress will ensure the efficacy of military policy decision-making process and policy implementation.