The Economic Situation

In: National Institute economic review: journal of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Band 18, S. 4-18

Abstract

The July measures were followed by a halt to the increase in the gross domestic product and almost certainly by a slight down-turn. So far there is no indication of significant change in the balance of payments situation since the second quarter, although the measures halted speculation against sterling and have been followed by a renewed inflow of foreign funds. The world economic environment now seems somewhat less favourable to an improvement in the United Kingdom's payments situation than it did in September, in spite of the recovery in the United States. The main reasons for a more cautious prognostication now lie in a pause in the economic expansion of western Europe; this has contributed to the weakness of commodity prices and is therefore limiting the prospects for expanding exports to primary producing countries.