The Economic Situation

In: National Institute economic review: journal of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Band 22, S. 4-21

Abstract

This article discusses the world economy first, and attempts some forecast of movements in world production and trade between now and the middle of next year. Some assumption has to be made about the international political situation. We have assumed that the tension will not be heightened again and that consequently the effect on the world economy will not be substantial. If the tension were to be revived, then presumably Government expenditure on defence would rise, and there might be a burst of stock-building: the world prospect in general would be more inflationary than the one we outline below.From this world picture, and from an analysis of Britain's competitive position, a view is deduced about Britain's exports and her balance of payments up to the middle of next year. The second section discusses how much expansion there is likely to be in the home economy, on present policies, between now and the middle of next year.