A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices: Preliminary Tests

In: Conflict management and peace science: the official journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 28, Heft 1, S. 65-87

Abstract

A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms competing models in most tests despite the absence of variance on a critical variable in all but nine cases. The more proximate the political setting of the issues is to the new model's underlying theory of competitive and potentially coercive politics, the better the new model does relative to other models tested in the European Union context.