Chaos As A Tool For Exploring Questions of International Security

In: Conflict management and peace science: the official journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 13, Heft 2, S. 149-177

Abstract

Mathematical models-static or dynamic-of international systems arc often used to predict outcomes of specific policy choices. The focus of this paper is not such predictions themselves but the question of whether or not such predictability is meaningful. Non-predictability in a deterministic dynamic model is usually referred to as "chaos" and is used in this paper as a paradigm for crisis instability and the possible outbreak of war in a system of competing states. The use of the paradigm is illustrated via initial explorations of three international security questions: 1.) Which is more stable, a bipolar or a multipolar system? 2.) Which are more war prone, democracies or autocracies? 3.) Which leads to more stability, seeking security via independent acquisition of arms or via a balance of power? A simple model-not empirically founded but manifesting some dominant aspects of the situation-is formulated for each question. The stability regime of each model is then determined. Using the postulate that a larger stability range indicates a less war-prone world, and vice-versa, answers to these questions are found, thus providing an alternate approach to the investigation of pressing theoretical and practical questions in international relations.