The effects of electoral anticipation on portfolio allocation

In: Party politics: an international journal for the study of political parties and political organizations, Band 27, Heft 5, S. 1044-1054

Abstract

Whereas much of the existing literature on coalition formation has focused on the disparity between Gamsonian payoffs and the outcomes of bargaining models, dangers of ministerial drift, party ideal points, issue salience/emphasis, and negotiation complexity, very little has been said on the role of the way public opinion affects political behavior via expectation of future electoral returns. Following the logic of "issue yield," this article argues that politicians allocate ministerial portfolios according to the distribution of public opinion in the hopes of obtaining better returns in subsequent elections and find compelling evidence linking public opinion with portfolio allocation.