The Mass Media and Public Opinion Polls in the 1988 Presidential Election: Trends, Accuracy, Consistency, and Events

In: American politics quarterly, Band 19, Heft 1, S. 59-79

Abstract

The authors examine the results of 48 national public opinion polls measuring support for George Bush and Michael Dukakis throughout the 1988 presidential campaign conducted or reported by five major media polling organizations. Polling trends are discussed, and the consistency of estimates across polls are assessed, across seven distinct time periods defined by key events during the 1988 election year, while accuracy is assessed by comparing final pre-election polls against election results. Time series transfer function methods are employed to assess the short-term and long-term effects of the two major national party conventions, the two Bush-Dukakis debates, and the Ouayle-Bentsen debate on candidate support. Statistically significant positive effects on Bush support are obtained for the Republican convention and for the second presidential debate, while support for Dukakis was affected significantly, and in opposite directions, by the two party conventions. The results are discussed in the context of recent research conducted by Crespi and others.