Challenges and Threats to the Debt Security of Central and Eastern European Countries

In: Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, Heft 2, S. 135-152

Abstract

The study aims to identify the debt security weaknesses in the CEE countries and determine challenges and threats to the debt security of national economies and the CEE region. To achieve this goal, general and specific research methods have been used, including historical and logical methods, analysis and synthesis, structural and functional analysis, generalization and abstraction, a systematic approach, classification, and statistical methods.
It is found out that the situation with debt security in the CEE region is quite controversial. The average external debt indicators of the CEE countries are in the unsafe zone, while the average solvency is at a relatively safe level. The analysis of external indebtedness and solvency indicators shows that the CEE group is highly heterogeneous regarding the level of countries' debt security.
Despite some improvement in the debt security of CEE economies during 2017–2019, the prospects for the development of the debt situation are rather vague. It is due to the growing impact of external challenges and threats to the debt security of the region, including the deterioration of the global economic environment and global recession, increase in credit risks and contraction in the international lending, global economic and political imbalances, and policy divergence, growing government spending on solving problems caused by the COVID-19 and corresponding pressure on public budgets, the general growth of global debt. Given the high heterogeneity of CEE countries in terms of current debt security, the manifestation of global challenges in each national economy can be rather diverse.