Multivariance: Xi Jinping' Big Strategic Answer

In: Mirovaja ėkonomika i meždunarodnye otnošenija: MĖMO, Band 59, Heft 12, S. 5-14

Abstract

The main trends of the current development of China are the following. First, the growth of domestic political tensions in light of the fight against corruption, and the growing, albeit covert, counter of it by party and military elite. Secondly, the external expansion – as an attempt to compensate for internal political and economic problems. China enters a new path of development, which implies multivariant decisions taken by the government and, therefore, multivariant effects of these decisions both for China itself and for its partners, including Russia. China may intensify or, conversely, slow down the anti-corruption struggle. And, in fact, in both cases domestic political position of Xi Jinping becomes more complicated: either he will make even more enemies, or lose credibility as "the Leader number Three" (after Mao and Deng Xiaoping) in the eyes of society. China could rapidly increase its external economic and military-political expansion, risking to face the growing suspicion of the international community and, above all, of its neighbors. But it may hamper the implementation of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" ("One belt, one road"), with negative consequences for China. In these circumstances, Xi Jinping is to intensify the anti-corruption campaign and offer a strategic response to the increased political tension – the initiative "One belt, one road", a global process with no space or time restrictions. Its main goal is to build a new transport infrastructure as a basis for the economic expansion of the Chinese capital. Acknowledgements. The article is prepared with financial support of the Russian Science Foundation (project №. 14-28-00097 "Optimization of Russian foreign investment relations in conditions of worsening relations with the EU") at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations.