Trump, Brexit and Russia

In: Međunarodni problemi: International problems, Band 73, Heft 1, S. 87-105

Abstract

The relations with Russia rank among the most important and most complex
issues in the US and UK foreign policy. The years after the Second World War
have been marked by an exhausting arms race between the Western and Eastern
bloc that ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the break-up of the Soviet
Union and the victory of the United States and its Western allies. The
purpose of this paper is to analyse the relations between the US and the
United Kingdom on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, during the mandate
of President Trump and after Brexit and point to possible directions that
these relations may take in the aftermath of Biden?s victory in the 2020 US
Presidential elections. The author proceeds from a hypothesis that the
efforts of President Trump, who, contrary to his predecessors, felt that the
relations with Russia should be based on interests rather than ideology,
have failed. He has not been successful primarily due to the huge resistance
mounted by the state structures, mainstream media and anti-Russian coalition
forged by the Republican and Democratic parties. The relations between the
UK and Russia remain cold after Brexit as well due to the severe problems
between the two countries. The first part will deal with the strained
relations between the United States and Russia following the West?s victory
in the Cold War, the efforts of President Trump to improve these relations
and his failure to do so. The second part of the paper will address the
relationship between the United Kingdom and Russia, which is in many
respects even more complicated than that between Russia and the US. After
Brexit, the relations between the two countries continue to be plagued by
the activities of the Russian agents in Great Britain, the crisis in Ukraine
and different views on the war in Syria. In the third part, the concluding
part of the paper, the author tried to answer the question of how the
relations between the US and Russia will develop after Joseph Biden won the
2020 US Presidential elections. According to him, the new President will
continue to pursue the traditional policy towards Russia agreed upon by both
US parties. It can be expected that Biden will, despite the policy of
sanctions pursued by his predecessors, Obama and Trump, engage more in
supporting the opposition and civilian sector in Russia. Given the cold and
strained relations between these two states, it may be assumed that Great
Britain will readily follow a new, tougher course of action pursued by
President Biden towards Russia and Putin. It is especially important for UK
politics that Biden returns to the ideas of liberalism because, as we have
seen on previous pages, in London, in addition to the actions of Russian
agents on the UK territory, Putin is most resented precisely for his
activities to overthrow the ruling liberal order. Despite the good ties
between Prime Minister Johnson and the former US President who supported
Brexit, Biden's victory will bring relief to the UK because of his
commitment, as opposed to Trump, to bring back America to the world
political stage, where London is likely to expect to find space for its new
global role after leaving the EU. On the other hand, Moscow will probably
continue with its past foreign policy strategy in anticipation of the moves
to be taken by the new US President without high expectations regarding the
future relations between the two countries. Russia has even fewer
expectations when it comes to relations with the UK, given the gravity of
the problems that burden the relations between the two countries