The replacement of generations in Serbia in the period 1950-2000

In: Stanovništvo: Population = Naselenie, Band 39, Heft 1-4, S. 45-71

Abstract

The article deals with the replacement of generations in Serbia, its dynamics
in the second half of the 20th century, and the importance of direct
determinants. It points to the major regional differences in the domain of
the population reproduction among the large areas of Serbia (Central Serbia,
Vojvodina, and Kosovo-Metohija). Two approaches of demographic analysis were
applied: period and cohort analysis. Basic indicators, definitions, and
shortcomings were presented. The results of the period analysis indicate
that up until 1988 (with the exceptions of 1957 and 1981), the fertility in
Serbia constantly reached a level of fertility necessary to ensure the
replacement. Since 1989, the net reproduction rate has constantly been below
unity. In Central Serbia and Vojvodina, the population has not been
reproducing itself for more than 45 years (since 1956). The situation has
been completely different in Kosovo-Metohija, where fertility has been above
the level necessary to ensure reproduction during the entire second half of
20th century. The cohort analysis applied to six chosen generations (birth
cohort of 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1975) indicates that in Serbia,
only women born in 1960 ensured the replacement. In Central Serbia and
Vojvodina, none of the studied generations succeeded in ensuring the
replacement, while in Kosovo-Metohija all generations did.