Population ageing trends in Serbia from the beginning of the 21st century and prospects until 2061: Regional aspect

In: Zbornik Matice Srpske za društvene nauke: Proceedings for social sciences, Heft 148, S. 687-700

Abstract

The results of the 2011 Census confirm that Serbia is still among countries
with the oldest population in Europe. Persons aged 65+ out?numbered those
under the age of 15 by 20% (17.4% versus 14.4%), and the median age was 42.7
years. Population ageing has continued, but it was slower in the intercensal
period of 2002-2011 than during the 1980s and 1990s. Population ageing in
Serbia has not only continued but is also widespread at all territorial
levels. According to the 2011 Census, in all four statistical regions (NUTS
2), people aged 65 or older outnumbered those under the age of 15 and, in
comparison to 2002, regional differences in the key indicators of population
ageing increased. Heterogeneity is more present at lower territorial levels
(cities/municipalities) with the least favourable age structure which will be
pointed out. This paper also explores trends of components of population
dynamics in the intercensal period 2002-2011, as well as causal relationship
with the change of the age structure. Current demographic trends (low
fertility, negative natural increase, net emigration) and very old age
structure severely limit the spectrum of future demographic changes both in
the medium and especially in the short term. The situation is particularly
influenced by the entrance of the large baby boom generation in the elderly
ages. Explorations of future population trends are conducted based on the
author?s own demographic projections for Serbia until 2061 (revision 2014).